Vilnius, Lithuania – Defense experts are raising concerns over Moscow’s escalating intelligence activities following the recent attack on Leonid Volkov, a close advisor to the late Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny. The incident, which took place outside Volkov’s home in Vilnius, involved a brutal assault that left him injured. This alarming event highlights the resurgence of Russian intelligence operations in Europe.
According to Lithuanian intelligence, the attack on Volkov is believed to be linked to Russian special services. Since the invasion of Ukraine, there have been reports of a substantial number of Russian intelligence officers being expelled from European embassies. Analysts suggest that Moscow has been hastily rebuilding its intelligence network by enlisting the help of organized crime groups to carry out covert operations.
In a separate incident, a Russian helicopter pilot who defected to Ukraine was found dead in Spain under mysterious circumstances. Spanish intelligence suspects that the pilot was targeted by hired killers acting on Russian orders. Additionally, a Bulgarian national has been arrested in the UK on espionage charges related to alleged Russian intelligence activities.
The recent spike in aggressive intelligence operations is being attributed to Russia’s evolving approach to conflicts with the West. Russian investigative journalist Andrei Soldatov suggests that Moscow views the current situation as a “warm war” with the West, prompting a significant shift in intelligence strategies. The Kremlin seems to have embraced a more assertive stance, openly acknowledging its involvement in certain covert activities.
Experts observe a marked increase in the sophistication of Russian intelligence operations, with a particular focus on revamping the GRU’s foreign operations arm. These strategic changes reflect Russia’s historical pattern of initially struggling in wars before adapting and becoming more effective over time. Analysts note a return to Cold War-era espionage tactics, with an emphasis on deploying undercover agents to gather vital intelligence in Europe.
Despite initial setbacks, such as the failure of the FSB to secure support in Ukraine, Russia appears to be adapting swiftly to the evolving geopolitical landscape. The Kremlin’s renewed emphasis on intelligence operations underscores its determination to assert influence on the international stage through covert means. As tensions between Russia and the West escalate, the role of intelligence agencies in shaping geopolitical outcomes is increasingly crucial.