Los Angeles, California – Distinguishing between natural earthquakes and man-made explosions is a crucial task, especially in upholding international weapons agreements like the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. In a recent study published in Geophysical Journal International, researchers have introduced a new mathematical method that shows promise in accurately classifying seismic events, with a success rate of 99% for explosions and 98% for earthquakes in a test data set from the western United States.
This innovative technique, centered on seismic moment tensors, utilizes computational tools to transform these representations into points projected on a hypersphere in five dimensions. By analyzing the distribution patterns of these points, scientists can differentiate between earthquakes and explosions with a high degree of accuracy. These findings challenge previous assumptions about the clustering of seismic events and provide a more precise understanding of the origins of these occurrences.
Lead author of the study, Mark Hoggard of the Australian National University, emphasizes the importance of having multiple methods to classify seismic events accurately. This new method successfully identified explosions caused by North Korean nuclear tests that were previously misclassified by older techniques. Earth scientist Vipul Silwal from the Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee also highlights the need for realistic ways to differentiate earthquakes from explosions.
While the new method has shown promise by correctly identifying past nuclear tests, there is still room for improvement to prevent misclassifications. Hoggard acknowledges the need to minimize the chances of misidentifying explosions as natural earthquakes and is working on refining the model. Similarly, Silwal suggests testing the new model against a more controlled data set to ensure its accuracy in distinguishing between seismic events accurately.
The scientific community sees this new tool as a significant step forward in enhancing the detection and classification of seismic events. The development of advanced mathematical methods and analytical techniques continues to improve our ability to differentiate between natural and man-made seismic occurrences, thereby contributing to the enforcement of international agreements aimed at reducing the threat of nuclear proliferation.