Boston, Massachusetts – One of the central arguments in favor of the government’s monopoly on police powers is that government police are essential in “keeping us safe.” Without this “thin blue line” between chaos and order, we are told, society will descend into chaos.
The police have retreated to the claim that their real role is simply to “enforce the law.”
How exactly this order is maintained by police, however, is less clear. In recent years, police agencies have insisted they have no legal obligation to directly intervene to protect people from threats posed by criminals. The courts have agreed.
Having abandoned the “protect” part of “to serve and protect,” the police have retreated to the claim that their real role is simply to “enforce the law.” This “enforcement” presumably would include investigation of crimes and arrests of suspects.
According to the most recent FBI “Crime in the United States” report, only 45 percent of violent crimes lead to arrest and prosecution. That is, less than half of violent crimes result in what is known as a “clearance” of the crime. Property crime clearances are much worse. Only 17 percent of burglaries, arsons, and car thefts are “cleared.”
Among violent crimes, homicides experience the highest clearance rate by far, at 61 percent. Aggravated assault comes in at 53 percent, and rape at 34 percent.
According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the nationwide conviction rate for murders is 70 percent.
So, we may be looking at a situation in which for every 100 homicides, 61 percent are cleared, and then 70 percent of those—43 cases—lead to conviction. And this assumes that the correct person is convicted. Wrongful conviction rates are assumed to be higher for lesser crimes since officials are less rigorous in establishing guilt when capital punishment is not on the table.
These are all aggregate estimates, of course, but it’s not outlandish to conclude from the available evidence that at least half of homicides don’t lead to conviction of the guilty party. Convictions for other sorts of crimes are well below that.
Moreover, clearance rates for homicides and other crimes are far below the national average in certain places. According to Peoria, Illinois’ Journal-Star, the Murder Accountability Project was able to determine the state’s 2015 clearance rate at roughly 37 percent. By comparison, Peoria cleared 47 percent of its cases that same year.
So, how is this impacting the community and society as a whole? These low clearance rates lead to fewer clearances in the future as witnesses are less likely to come forward, and victims may choose not to report crimes due to the unlikelihood of a conviction.
While police agencies are quick to point out that certain factors are beyond their direct control, there are factors within their control that can significantly influence clearance rates. Factors such as the actions of the first officer on the scene, response time, and number of detectives assigned to the case can all impact the likelihood of clearing a case.
This issue raises questions about the allocation of police resources and the focus of law enforcement. Fewer than five percent of arrests are for serious violent crimes, with the majority of arrests involving non-serious offenses. This begs the question of whether police departments are allocating their resources effectively, especially in light of the low conviction rates for violent crimes.